The UFC returns from the Christmas break with a 14-fight card at the Apex to kick off 2025. Headlined by a rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas, the action begins at 4:00 p.m. Eastern this Saturday.
Introduction
One of my first “aha!” moments in gambling (not just in MMA but generally) was shifting my mindset to question why markets might be wrong, instead of solely trying to predict outcomes.
At its core, a betting line represents a market where you can “buy” or “sell” the likelihood of an event. While these markets tend to be efficient, eventually reflecting the true odds, there’s often more room for inefficiencies in MMA compared to major sports markets like the NFL or NBA. To beat the odds long-term, the goal is to identify these inefficiencies.
That’s the aim of this article. Inspired by NFL “Luck Rankings,” we’ll explore instances where variance has played a significant role in creating misleading perceptions, resulting in inefficient betting lines. Key factors include split or controversial decisions, short-notice bouts, overturned results, fluke injuries, or out-of-weight-class performances.
The focus will primarily be on fights with a high likelihood of going to the scorecards or where one fighter has clear finishing potential.
UFC Vegas 101 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Amanda Ribas (-205) vs. Mackenzie Dern (+170)
Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas first clashed іn October 2019, with Ribas securing a dominant unanimous decision victory.
Both fighters share similar paths, starting as grappling prodigies under their black belt fathers before transitioning into MMA. What distinguished Ribas іn their first fight was her takedown ability, stemming from her Judo foundation. Dern, despite being one оf the best women’s jiu-jitsu practitioners іn history, struggles with takedowns.
Neither fighter is a standout striker, though both have improved throughout their careers. Ribas might have a slight edge in pure striking, but Dern’s renewed work with coach Jason Perillo could narrow the gap.
Ribas remains the rightful favorite. However, with more than 60% of Tapology users backing Dern, the odds may tighten closer to fight night.
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-118) vs. Carlston Harris (-102)
While the co-main event features two welterweights in their late 30s—both coming off losses—it promises action-packed moments.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is 1-4 in his last five fights, though three of those losses were split decisions. Media members were divided on the outcomes, with many favoring Ponzinibbio in those close fights.
Carlston Harris, meanwhile, suffered a first-round knockout in his last outing and was dominated in the two rounds prior to catching a late submission in a previous fight.
With a higher level of competition on his resume, Ponzinibbio should be a heavier favorite. The betting line has shifted slightly in his favor, now at -111 on FanDuel.
Verdict: Santiago Ponzinibbio Undervalued
Thiago Moisés (-192) vs. Trey Ogden (+160)
There’s notable line movement here, with Trey Ogden’s odds drifting from +140 to around +160.
Ogden is 3-1-1 in his last five fights, with a controversial no-contest against Nikolas Motta, where the referee mistakenly stopped the fight just as Motta was seconds away from tapping to a submission.
Thiago Moisés, on the other hand, is 1-3 in his last four bouts and has struggled consistently against higher-tier opponents throughout his UFC career.
While Ogden is six years older at 35, the matchup feels closer to a pick ’em. At +162 on FanDuel, Ogden represents solid value, even if just for a small bet.
Verdict: Trey Ogden Undervalued
Ernesta Kareckaite (-298) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+240)
This line feels particularly off.
Kareckaite is 0-1 in the UFC, with her last three wins all coming via split decision. Her Contender Series win in September 2023 followed the same trend. Despite her boxing and kickboxing background, she has only ever beaten opponents without professional wins, and all by split decision.
Nicolle Caliari, in contrast, has shown more promise. She’s primarily a striker with a BJJ purple belt and has submitted a black belt in competition. Additionally, Caliari boasts five knockouts on the regional scene and finished two quality opponents before earning her UFC shot.
Underdogs in lighter-weight women’s fights often present great value, and Caliari fits this mold perfectly at +240 (available on DraftKings and BetMGM).
Verdict: Nicolle Caliari Undervalued
